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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd